XGs broken down into game states for Allsvenskan and Superettan

So, while I’m still at it, working with game states, I thought it would be interesting to look att how teams and payers perform in different game states. So I made two plots… Continue reading XGs broken down into game states for Allsvenskan and Superettan

The importance of scoring the first goal

To quote coach Lars Lagerbäck – “Goals change games”.
At first, this post was just going to be a brief follow up of the preview I posted last week before ÖFK – Sirius. Well, the problem was that when I made the XG map after the game it just didn´t seem to make sense.
Continue reading The importance of scoring the first goal

Preview ÖFK – Sirius

So with the decisive game of Superettan just two days away I thought I’d make a detailed match preview. If ÖFK avoids a loss, the top two spots, leading to advancement seems to be more or less totally secured. So how large are the chances of Sirius making an upset on Saturday? Well, the easy answer would be to ask my predictive model, which I will describe more in coming blog posts. That model gives Sirius a 17.5% chance of winning. Why? Let’s look att the key numbers behind that calculation.
Continue reading Preview ÖFK – Sirius

Projecting league positions, part 3 – Allsvenskan!

So, to sum the last two posts up. The lower the delta, the fewer rounds to predict – the better the model is at projecting the table positions and how many points a team will get. The easiest way of visualizing would be to look at how well the model performs in terms of correctly guessed table positions or near table positions. Continue reading Projecting league positions, part 3 – Allsvenskan!

My ExpG model evaluated and explained

So, I got some great feedback on my first blog post! Now I feel that I have to explain the model in-depth and make some validations. One thing first, I will try to never write long blog posts, Google Analytics tells me that the average visitor reads my blog for 3 minutes so the posts I write will all be readable in that time.

Continue reading My ExpG model evaluated and explained