XGs broken down into game states for Allsvenskan and Superettan

So, while I’m still at it, working with game states, I thought it would be interesting to look att how teams and payers perform in different game states. So I made two plots… Continue reading XGs broken down into game states for Allsvenskan and Superettan

The importance of scoring the first goal

To quote coach Lars Lagerbäck – “Goals change games”.
At first, this post was just going to be a brief follow up of the preview I posted last week before ÖFK – Sirius. Well, the problem was that when I made the XG map after the game it just didn´t seem to make sense.
Continue reading The importance of scoring the first goal

Preview ÖFK – Sirius

So with the decisive game of Superettan just two days away I thought I’d make a detailed match preview. If ÖFK avoids a loss, the top two spots, leading to advancement seems to be more or less totally secured. So how large are the chances of Sirius making an upset on Saturday? Well, the easy answer would be to ask my predictive model, which I will describe more in coming blog posts. That model gives Sirius a 17.5% chance of winning. Why? Let’s look att the key numbers behind that calculation.
Continue reading Preview ÖFK – Sirius