With Östersunds FK starting their Europa League group stage campaign with two straight victories I wanted to assess their chances of going through from their group.
With most of the European top leagues reaching the half way mark I thought it was time to start looking at my league projections again. Continue reading The how good was my prediction post.
To quote coach Lars Lagerbäck – “Goals change games”.
At first, this post was just going to be a brief follow up of the preview I posted last week before ÖFK – Sirius. Well, the problem was that when I made the XG map after the game it just didn´t seem to make sense.
Continue reading The importance of scoring the first goal
This post turned out to become quite a lot related to programming. As I mentioned in the last post my idea was make my predictive table positions/points model more accurate by adding more data to it. I wanted to use my own football-data parser in order to add shots data, including TSR to all teams included in the model.
With the Swedish leagues slowly coming to an end I wanted to look at creating a method for making a qualified, statistically based projection of how football leagues will end up. As the name of this blog now implies, I have approached the problem with machine learning and the results look really promising!
So, I forgot one thing when I made my ExpG model and posted the results here. I guess this is what is so great about trying to contribute to a community and be open about what one is doing. 11tegen11 gave me some feedback and I got curious too. Game State, the current state of the game regarding score should make an impact, I mean who hasn’t seen a player missing out on some clear opportunities when the game already is decided? Tonight I added game state and this is what happened… Continue reading Impact of Game State to my Expected Goals/ExpG model
So, I got some great feedback on my first blog post! Now I feel that I have to explain the model in-depth and make some validations. One thing first, I will try to never write long blog posts, Google Analytics tells me that the average visitor reads my blog for 3 minutes so the posts I write will all be readable in that time.
So this is my first blog post. There will be a lot more to come! I’ll probably mix stories and insights from my ongoing projects regarding football analytics, predictions and betting with Team/Player/Match-Analysis. The latter actually has sprung from the projects so all off a sudden I sat with what I think is a world premiere of projecting Expected Goals for the top Swedish divisions.