XGs broken down into game states for Allsvenskan and Superettan

So, while I’m still at it, working with game states, I thought it would be interesting to look att how teams and payers perform in different game states. So I made two plots… Continue reading XGs broken down into game states for Allsvenskan and Superettan

The (true) importance of scoring the first goal.

I have to put out a correction of my last blog post. Sorry about that! The impact of scoring the first goal wasn’t as large as I stated yesterday. I had a bug in my script that made erroneous game-states on goals scored. I have now corrected it and carefully checked the results. Thanks to the comment from Sam in the blog post I now also can compare the figures for Premier League which feels comforting. This is what the plot actually should look like:
Continue reading The (true) importance of scoring the first goal.

The importance of scoring the first goal

To quote coach Lars Lagerbäck – “Goals change games”.
At first, this post was just going to be a brief follow up of the preview I posted last week before ÖFK – Sirius. Well, the problem was that when I made the XG map after the game it just didn´t seem to make sense.
Continue reading The importance of scoring the first goal

Impact of Game State to my Expected Goals/ExpG model

So, I forgot one thing when I made my ExpG model and posted the results here. I guess this is what is so great about trying to contribute to a community and be open about what one is doing.  11tegen11 gave me some feedback and I got curious too. Game State, the current state of the game regarding score should make an impact, I mean who hasn’t seen a player missing out on some clear opportunities when the game already is decided? Tonight I added game state and this is what happened… Continue reading Impact of Game State to my Expected Goals/ExpG model