XGs broken down into game states for Allsvenskan and Superettan

So, while I’m still at it, working with game states, I thought it would be interesting to look att how teams and payers perform in different game states. So I made two plots… Continue reading XGs broken down into game states for Allsvenskan and Superettan

The importance of scoring the first goal

To quote coach Lars Lagerbäck – “Goals change games”.
At first, this post was just going to be a brief follow up of the preview I posted last week before ÖFK – Sirius. Well, the problem was that when I made the XG map after the game it just didn´t seem to make sense.
Continue reading The importance of scoring the first goal

The most efficient players in Allsvenskan

So, I thought I’d answer two questions in this blog post.

The first was a question from an article in Östersundsposten this week, asking who you think is the best player ever to have played in ÖFK.

The second was a question I got when I wrote about Lasse Vibe and his efficiency in terms of his ratio between expected goals and actual goals.

Now, the answer to the two questions turned out to be related and make one blog post.

Continue reading The most efficient players in Allsvenskan

Impact of Game State to my Expected Goals/ExpG model

So, I forgot one thing when I made my ExpG model and posted the results here. I guess this is what is so great about trying to contribute to a community and be open about what one is doing.  11tegen11 gave me some feedback and I got curious too. Game State, the current state of the game regarding score should make an impact, I mean who hasn’t seen a player missing out on some clear opportunities when the game already is decided? Tonight I added game state and this is what happened… Continue reading Impact of Game State to my Expected Goals/ExpG model

Lasse Vibe

I read this tweet, basically saying that Brentford are known for using statistical models when buying players. Updated: I now also read Tom Worvilles excellent series on Brentford here.
Brentford bought Lasse Vibe from IFK Göteborg today. So it made me curious, I just had to check Lasse Vibes ExpG/G for the two last seasons to see if this is a signing influenced or based on statistical models. Continue reading Lasse Vibe

The Seon-Min Moon transfer

So, with yesterdays success with my ExpG model I thought I’d give it a go with commenting/analysing the players involved in yesterdays transfer. I thought it would be extra interesting for me since it is the two Swedish teams I watch the most, almost every game that is, including all ÖFK games at home live.

Continue reading The Seon-Min Moon transfer

My ExpG model evaluated and explained

So, I got some great feedback on my first blog post! Now I feel that I have to explain the model in-depth and make some validations. One thing first, I will try to never write long blog posts, Google Analytics tells me that the average visitor reads my blog for 3 minutes so the posts I write will all be readable in that time.

Continue reading My ExpG model evaluated and explained

World Premiere – Expected Goals in Sweden, Machine Learning and the Blog!

Hello World!

So this is my first blog post. There will be a lot more to come! I’ll probably mix stories and insights from my ongoing projects regarding football analytics, predictions and betting with Team/Player/Match-Analysis. The latter actually has sprung from the projects so all off a sudden I sat with what I think is a world premiere of projecting Expected Goals for the top Swedish divisions.

Continue reading World Premiere – Expected Goals in Sweden, Machine Learning and the Blog!