So, to sum the last two posts up. The lower the delta, the fewer rounds to predict – the better the model is at projecting the table positions and how many points a team will get. The easiest way of visualizing would be to look at how well the model performs in terms of correctly guessed table positions or near table positions. Continue reading Projecting league positions, part 3 – Allsvenskan!
Just as we thought that MFF was going to start moving upwards in the Allsvenskan table they lost to BK Häcken. Could it be that they have their mind set on the big game coming up against Celtic?
So, I thought I’d answer two questions in this blog post.
The first was a question from an article in Östersundsposten this week, asking who you think is the best player ever to have played in ÖFK.
The second was a question I got when I wrote about Lasse Vibe and his efficiency in terms of his ratio between expected goals and actual goals.
Now, the answer to the two questions turned out to be related and make one blog post.
So, I forgot one thing when I made my ExpG model and posted the results here. I guess this is what is so great about trying to contribute to a community and be open about what one is doing. 11tegen11 gave me some feedback and I got curious too. Game State, the current state of the game regarding score should make an impact, I mean who hasn’t seen a player missing out on some clear opportunities when the game already is decided? Tonight I added game state and this is what happened… Continue reading Impact of Game State to my Expected Goals/ExpG model
So, I got some great feedback on my first blog post! Now I feel that I have to explain the model in-depth and make some validations. One thing first, I will try to never write long blog posts, Google Analytics tells me that the average visitor reads my blog for 3 minutes so the posts I write will all be readable in that time.
So this is my first blog post. There will be a lot more to come! I’ll probably mix stories and insights from my ongoing projects regarding football analytics, predictions and betting with Team/Player/Match-Analysis. The latter actually has sprung from the projects so all off a sudden I sat with what I think is a world premiere of projecting Expected Goals for the top Swedish divisions.