Impact of Game State to my Expected Goals/ExpG model

So, I forgot one thing when I made my ExpG model and posted the results here. I guess this is what is so great about trying to contribute to a community and be open about what one is doing.  11tegen11 gave me some feedback and I got curious too. Game State, the current state of the game regarding score should make an impact, I mean who hasn’t seen a player missing out on some clear opportunities when the game already is decided? Tonight I added game state and this is what happened… Continue reading Impact of Game State to my Expected Goals/ExpG model

Lasse Vibe

I read this tweet, basically saying that Brentford are known for using statistical models when buying players. Updated: I now also read Tom Worvilles excellent series on Brentford here.
Brentford bought Lasse Vibe from IFK Göteborg today. So it made me curious, I just had to check Lasse Vibes ExpG/G for the two last seasons to see if this is a signing influenced or based on statistical models. Continue reading Lasse Vibe

The Seon-Min Moon transfer

So, with yesterdays success with my ExpG model I thought I’d give it a go with commenting/analysing the players involved in yesterdays transfer. I thought it would be extra interesting for me since it is the two Swedish teams I watch the most, almost every game that is, including all ÖFK games at home live.

Continue reading The Seon-Min Moon transfer

My ExpG model evaluated and explained

So, I got some great feedback on my first blog post! Now I feel that I have to explain the model in-depth and make some validations. One thing first, I will try to never write long blog posts, Google Analytics tells me that the average visitor reads my blog for 3 minutes so the posts I write will all be readable in that time.

Continue reading My ExpG model evaluated and explained

World Premiere – Expected Goals in Sweden, Machine Learning and the Blog!

Hello World!

So this is my first blog post. There will be a lot more to come! I’ll probably mix stories and insights from my ongoing projects regarding football analytics, predictions and betting with Team/Player/Match-Analysis. The latter actually has sprung from the projects so all off a sudden I sat with what I think is a world premiere of projecting Expected Goals for the top Swedish divisions.

Continue reading World Premiere – Expected Goals in Sweden, Machine Learning and the Blog!