Damallsvenskan 2015 – season summary

A while back I listened to the Analytics FC podcast, episode 4 and now recently the episode 14. Among other things they talked about womens football and the lack of available (open) data. When I heard it I thought I’d give a try with the data I have gathered for the Swedish League – Damallsvenskan. So here is the summary of Damallsvenskan 2015!

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XGs broken down into game states for Allsvenskan and Superettan

So, while I’m still at it, working with game states, I thought it would be interesting to look att how teams and payers perform in different game states. So I made two plots… Continue reading XGs broken down into game states for Allsvenskan and Superettan

The (true) importance of scoring the first goal.

I have to put out a correction of my last blog post. Sorry about that! The impact of scoring the first goal wasn’t as large as I stated yesterday. I had a bug in my script that made erroneous game-states on goals scored. I have now corrected it and carefully checked the results. Thanks to the comment from Sam in the blog post I now also can compare the figures for Premier League which feels comforting. This is what the plot actually should look like:
Continue reading The (true) importance of scoring the first goal.

The importance of scoring the first goal

To quote coach Lars Lagerbäck – “Goals change games”.
At first, this post was just going to be a brief follow up of the preview I posted last week before ÖFK – Sirius. Well, the problem was that when I made the XG map after the game it just didn´t seem to make sense.
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Preview ÖFK – Sirius

So with the decisive game of Superettan just two days away I thought I’d make a detailed match preview. If ÖFK avoids a loss, the top two spots, leading to advancement seems to be more or less totally secured. So how large are the chances of Sirius making an upset on Saturday? Well, the easy answer would be to ask my predictive model, which I will describe more in coming blog posts. That model gives Sirius a 17.5% chance of winning. Why? Let’s look att the key numbers behind that calculation.
Continue reading Preview ÖFK – Sirius