XGs broken down into game states for Allsvenskan and Superettan

So, while I’m still at it, working with game states, I thought it would be interesting to look att how teams and payers perform in different game states. So I made two plots… Continue reading XGs broken down into game states for Allsvenskan and Superettan

The importance of scoring the first goal

To quote coach Lars Lagerbäck – “Goals change games”.
At first, this post was just going to be a brief follow up of the preview I posted last week before ÖFK – Sirius. Well, the problem was that when I made the XG map after the game it just didn´t seem to make sense.
Continue reading The importance of scoring the first goal

Preview ÖFK – Sirius

So with the decisive game of Superettan just two days away I thought I’d make a detailed match preview. If ÖFK avoids a loss, the top two spots, leading to advancement seems to be more or less totally secured. So how large are the chances of Sirius making an upset on Saturday? Well, the easy answer would be to ask my predictive model, which I will describe more in coming blog posts. That model gives Sirius a 17.5% chance of winning. Why? Let’s look att the key numbers behind that calculation.
Continue reading Preview ÖFK – Sirius

The most efficient players in Allsvenskan

So, I thought I’d answer two questions in this blog post.

The first was a question from an article in Östersundsposten this week, asking who you think is the best player ever to have played in ÖFK.

The second was a question I got when I wrote about Lasse Vibe and his efficiency in terms of his ratio between expected goals and actual goals.

Now, the answer to the two questions turned out to be related and make one blog post.

Continue reading The most efficient players in Allsvenskan

Impact of Game State to my Expected Goals/ExpG model

So, I forgot one thing when I made my ExpG model and posted the results here. I guess this is what is so great about trying to contribute to a community and be open about what one is doing.  11tegen11 gave me some feedback and I got curious too. Game State, the current state of the game regarding score should make an impact, I mean who hasn’t seen a player missing out on some clear opportunities when the game already is decided? Tonight I added game state and this is what happened… Continue reading Impact of Game State to my Expected Goals/ExpG model

My ExpG model evaluated and explained

So, I got some great feedback on my first blog post! Now I feel that I have to explain the model in-depth and make some validations. One thing first, I will try to never write long blog posts, Google Analytics tells me that the average visitor reads my blog for 3 minutes so the posts I write will all be readable in that time.

Continue reading My ExpG model evaluated and explained