Allsvenskan 2016 – some early stats

Since we have two really unexpected teams in the first two spots of Allsvenskan after 5 rounds I thought it would be interesting to look for some explanations in the numbers.

I also realized, when the blog post was nearly done, that it may serve as a brief explanation of XG-G on a team and seasonal level.

The first thing I did was to look for under and over performers in regards to Expected Goals. And this is what I found (clicking on the plot will make it interactive):

Allsvenskan XG-G XGA-GA after 5 roundsThere are two teams with a big under performance when it comes to conceding goals, Kalmar and Falkenberg. Now Falkenberg seems to be a team bound for relegation this year so maybe that number will remain. For Kalmar however it is not unlikely that they may start to concede less goals as the season continues. The league leaders GIF Sundsvall however has had an extremely good outcome when it comes to goal expectancy so far, both conceded and scored. The total diff between goal expectancy (for and against) and actual goal ratio is at 6. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sundsvall drop. Actually, they may very well still end up at the bottom of the table. This is what happens if you sort the table in regards to XG-XGA instead of G-GA:
The table sorted on XG-XA
XG G Team Name XGA GA G-GA XG-XGA
9.64 8 Malmö FF 5.35 6 2 4.29
9.67 10 Djurgården 5.67 5 5 3.99
8.99 9 AIK 7.35 9 0 1.64
8.7989204532 9 IFK Göteborg 7.32 7 2 1.48
6.22 5 Östersunds FK 4.80 5 0 1.42
8.24 11 Hammarby 6.94 8 3 1.30
8.73 9 Örebro 7.68 9 0 1.05
9.55 8 IF Elfsborg 8.70 9 -1 0.85
5.69 7 Kalmar FF 5.12 11 -4 0.58
7.72 12 IFK Norrköping FK 7.28 8 4 0.44
6.16 4 Gefle IF FF 7.60 5 -1 -1.44
6.35 9 Helsingborgs IF 8.80 12 -3 -2.44
4.83 7 Jönköpings Södra IF 7.41 5 2 -2.58
5.53 8 GIF Sundsvall 8.68 5 3 -3.15
5.92 4 Falkenbergs FF 9.60 13 -9 -3.69
5.29 4 BK Häcken 9.02 7 -3 -3.73

The table sorted on G-GA

XG G Team Name XGA GA G-GA XG-XGA
9.67 10 Djurgården 5.67 5 5 3.99
7.72 12 IFK Norrköping FK 7.28 8 4 0.44
8.24 11 Hammarby 6.94 8 3 1.30
5.53 8 GIF Sundsvall 8.68 5 3 -3.15
9.64 8 Malmö FF 5.35 6 2 4.29
8.80 9 IFK Göteborg 7.32 7 2 1.48
4.83 7 Jönköpings Södra IF 7.41 5 2 -2.58
8.99 9 AIK 7.35 9 0 1.64
6.22 5 Östersunds FK 4.80 5 0 1.42
8.73 9 Örebro 7.68 9 0 1.05
9.55 8 IF Elfsborg 8.70 9 -1 0.85
6.16 4 Gefle IF FF 7.59 5 -1 -1.444
6.35 9 Helsingborgs IF 8.79 12 -3 -2.44
5.29 4 BK Häcken 9.02 7 -3 -3.73
5.69 7 Kalmar FF 5.12 11 -4 0.57
5.92 4 Falkenbergs FF 9.60 13 -9 -3.69

What does it mean?

In general – teams tend to level out where expected goals (XG) and actual goals scored correlate more and more as the season progresses. We saw that very clearly with Örebro last season. And they have started this year as they ended the last. So right now Örebro are the underdogs as IFK Norrköping was last year.

Örebro half way through last season

Allsvenskan 2015-09-01 XG XGA

Örebro at the end of the season

The two plots above also illustrates how teams tend to level out – the dots go against the middle, as the season progresses.

Projection (very early)

Now, the two tables above is a reflection of Expected Goals for the different teams so far. How does the table projection look like? I used my model and ran the projection with 25 rounds to go. The accuracy this early isn’t huge but we still can see some patterns. Note that my model doesn’t take XG into account, only TSR, together with lots of other parameters.

Allsvenskan projection at round 5

**************ACCURACY: 0.177796327212 *****************
**************ACCURACY +-1: 0.424874791319 *****************

Still some interesting things can be noted. GIF Sundsvall may very well drop a lot in the table. Title contenders Elfsborg will have to start performing better – they haven’t been unlucky. Malmö FF on the other hand still seem to be the largest favorite.

Data

In order to make the new projections I had to update my data sources. They are now public and can be downloaded at: http://www.stryktipsetisistastund.se/data

Published by

Ola Lidmark Eriksson

Football analyst/programmer https://blog.stryktipsetisistastund.se/

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