So with the decisive game of Superettan just two days away I thought I’d make a detailed match preview. If ÖFK avoids a loss, the top two spots, leading to advancement seems to be more or less totally secured. So how large are the chances of Sirius making an upset on Saturday? Well, the easy answer would be to ask my predictive model, which I will describe more in coming blog posts. That model gives Sirius a 17.5% chance of winning. Why? Let’s look att the key numbers behind that calculation.
Two top teams facing each other. Both teams have a good ratio between taken shots and conceded ones. Lets look at these figures more in detail by plotting the shots taken on and off target per round as well as shots for and against for the teams respectively:
A bit messy, I know but if you show/hide some of the traces(by clicking on the traces in legend on the right hand side of the plot) it gets more interesting. Let’s only show Sirius Shots and Shots against:
Looking at these plots it becomes quite obvious that both teams almost always tend to take at least 10 shots per game.
And in Superettan every 8 shots is converted to one goal, in general.
What about scoring ratio?
Both teams more or less score 2 goals for every one they concede. Things my model also take into account are days of rest, home advantage (of course) and a lot of other things. One key number that my model actually don’t take into consideration is Expected Goals. The reason for that is simply that I don’t have that number for any other games that Superettan and Allsvenskan. But here are the figures for both teams this season. I have used a heat map to try to visualize from which areas the teams has the most finishes for and against.
ÖFK is underachieving when it comes to finishing. 52 Expected goals and only 44 scored. Sirius on the other hand is actually underachieving when it comes to conceded goals! 14 Expected and 19 Conceded. This is my first attempt with heat maps and they may not say that much since they seem quite similar but ÖFK seems to have more finishes a bit closer to the goal, within the danger zone.
With these stats taken into consideration I´d say that the most difficult thing to predict is how the two teams will take on the game tactically. Sirius goes in to the game more or less having to win while ÖFK can play for a draw. Now, I have never seen ÖFK play for a draw so that seems unlikely. More likely is that we will se at least one goal for ÖFK and at most one goal for Sirius.
Data from svenskfotboll.se