So this is my first blog post. There will be a lot more to come! I’ll probably mix stories and insights from my ongoing projects regarding football analytics, predictions and betting with Team/Player/Match-Analysis. The latter actually has sprung from the projects so all off a sudden I sat with what I think is a world premiere of projecting Expected Goals for the top Swedish divisions.
I also think that the way I project ExpG is somewhat different from how e.g. Michael Caley makes his. My approach, being more of a programmer than statistician has been very pragmatic. I took all the data I could find about finishes; position on the pitch, game time, possession in 5 min interval and whether the finish is from open play, set piece or from a corner. I then use Machine Learning to make the projection. I haven’t seen anyone doing this, a bit strange since I find it to be quite a good match. I will try to do some verifications of the model in the future.
More on how I got here will come in blog posts during the fall. It is quite a long story. So now on to yesterdays games…
Mff – Örebro
Mff obviously dissapointed. Still Örebro had a few good chances.
Åtvidaberg – Gefle
Typical draw with these two teams involved 🙂
Halmstad – Kalmar
Huge dissapointment for Kalmar. They created enough chances to win this one.
Oh, one more world première I think, is visualizing the match events using Plotly. Quite nice isn’t it? I had to draw the lines using formulas but other from that it adds nice interactivity with player names on hover as well as the full screen option.
Anyone interested in some specific game, player or team in Sweden? I’m up for requests!