With Östersunds FK starting their Europa League group stage campaign with two straight victories I wanted to assess their chances of going through from their group.
It’s a question as old as time, or at least as old as public football analytics. How good are our prediction models?
To try and answer this question, I’ll be using the Ranked Probability Score (RPS). The RPS is a statistical method that measures the quality of predictions. It calculates how far off predictions were from the actual results, which means that a low RPS is better than a high RPS.
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Just a brief summary of Damallsvenskan. Not at all as extensive as I did last year, but still.
This season I won´t do a regular season summary of Allsvenskan the way I did last year. Instead I will tell the story about GIF Sundsvall, and introduce a new area chart visualization
This is a brief study I started working on this summer but never had time to get ready enough to publish, until now. So, here it is!
I had an idea to study if there is any significant difference in goal conversion for right footed players in the left part of the pitch in relation to left footed players shooting from the right part of the pitch. The idea would not only be that a right footed would player get more opportunities to score from the left, supported by the argument that players better can cut inwards when playing with the odd foot, but also that the angle to the goal would be somewhat better thus increasing the goal conversion. Continue reading The right footed left forward
Since we have two really unexpected teams in the first two spots of Allsvenskan after 5 rounds I thought it would be interesting to look for some explanations in the numbers.
I just wanted to post a brief update of what I have been working on lately. The Swedish leagues are soon starting and the work I’m doing together with ÖFK is making some real progress. So expect a lot more on the blog in the coming months!
While I was at it I made three more projections at more or less the half way mark of the seasons. Continue reading 3 more projections
With most of the European top leagues reaching the half way mark I thought it was time to start looking at my league projections again. Continue reading The how good was my prediction post.
So, not many blog posts here recently. Basically that just has been an effect of me having too much to do at my day time job. The good news however is that I will be able to do some analytics the coming weeks at work. My cooperation with, now promoted to Allsvenskan, ÖFK has grown and I’ve managed to convince my employer to start looking at a bigger project. This will include experts in design and UI/UX, to visualize and analyze data and stats. It has a huge potential and I’m really excited. I hope there will be more to come from this on the blog the coming months! Continue reading Some thoughts on Machine Learning and Football Analytics